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Measuring Output Gap
Is It Worth Your Time?

by Jiaqian Chen and Lucyna Gornicka

Series:Working Paper No. 20/24
ISBN 9781513527864
Code: #WPIEA2020024

Publication year: 2020

Cdn: $27.00; US: $25.00
Paperback
Language: English
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We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Measuring Output Gap
Cdn: $27.00; US: $25.00
International Monetary Fund (IMF) BookID: 126953 Added: 2020.2.9