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Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics
Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

by Mariana Colacelli and Emilio Fernández Corugedo

Series:Working Paper No. 18/248
ISBN 9781484384732
Code: #WPIEA2018248

Publication year: 2018

Cdn: $27.00; US: $23.50
Paperback
Language: English
44 pages
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Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan’s outlook using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan’s demographic headwinds — a declining and ageing population — on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan’s real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics
Cdn: $27.00; US: $23.50
International Monetary Fund (IMF) BookID: 123939 Added: 2018.12.2