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Predicting Fiscal Crises
by Svetlana Cerovic, Kerstin Gerling, Andrew Hodge, and Paulo Medas

Series:Working Paper No. 18/181
ISBN 9781484372555
Code: #WPIEA2018181

Publication year: 2018

Cdn: $27.00; US: $23.50
Language: English
42 pages
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This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning systems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both non-fiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.
Predicting Fiscal Crises
Cdn: $27.00; US: $23.50
International Monetary Fund (IMF) BookID: 123292 Added: 2018.8.5